With Europa League Semi-Finalists Juventus leading AS Roma
by 8 points with 6 games to go, it looks like the title race in Italy is just
about run and with Napoli leading Fiorentina by 9 points and Fiorentina 5
points ahead of 5th place Inter it looks like the final Champions League place
and the first Europa League place are pretty secured.
The real chase is the pack behind, with two more Europa
League spots up for grabs ( one due to Fiorentina facing Napoli in the Coppa
Italia Final) 5 points separate 7 teams with only 6 games left, the intensity
of the Italian league will be intensified in the final weeks with several
match-ups between the teams involved in the chase, below I will use analyse the
run in that these teams have and use a strength of schedule formula developed
in order to show the average position of their opposition.
Inter Milan (5th Place) 50 points: Inter start off their
run-in with two trips firstly to Genoa to face Sampdoria and then to the
Tardini to face 6th place Parma in what could be the most pivotal game in the
race for Europa League places, Inter then welcome the Partenopei (Napoli) to
the San Siro before a crucial Milan derby the week later, on top of this they
welcome 7th place Lazio to the San Siro and conclude the season in Verona to
take on relegation threatened Chievo.
Parma (6th Place) 50 points: Parma have had a great season,
a team who have through character and determination had a remarkable 17 game
unbeaten streak which set a team record for games without defeat. For Parma's
run-in they start off with the Emilian Derby away against Bologna in the early
Sunday kick off, they then go to the San Siro to face Inter and then go to
Sardinia to face Cagliari. Parma then have 2 out of 3 at home to finish their
season starting with Samp at the Tardini, they then go to Turin to face 10th
place Torino before ending the season at home to relegation threatened Livorno.
Lazio (7th Place) 48 Points: Lazio will be looking for
Europa League redemption next season after their surprise defeat at the hands
of Ludogorets of Bulgaria in the Round of 32, but last seasons Coppa Italia
winners will need to work hard if they are to qualify for the tournament next
year, Lazio's run-in starts with on paper their hardest fixture at the San
Paolo away to Napoli, they then face 10th place Torino at home before visiting
lowly Livorno, they then face 9th and 5th place Verona and Inter, home and away
respectively before ending the season at home to Bologna
Atalanta (8th Place) 46 Points: Atalanta have been fuelled
by the tank German Denis and his goals have helped Atalanta in to this situation
with a chance to secure European football for the first time in 24 years,
Atalanta's push for Europe starts off with a tough trip to face Roma and then
back to back home games against fellow Europa League contenders Verona and
Genoa which are key games as they then face champions elect Juve in Turin
before a local derby at home to AC Milan and finishing the season at bottom
place Catania.
Verona (9th Place) 46 Points: Verona will consider
themselves to be the surprise package of this season, widely tipped to go
straight back down to Serie B, Andrea Mandorlini's outfit have surprised
everyone with their level of play this season and with their great home support
( when compared to city rivals Chievo's home turnout) they have been in the
race for European football for most of the season, the main players behind
Verona's surprise run have been Brazilian midfielders Romulo and Juan Iturbe as
well as former Italy international Luca Toni who has hit 16 league goals (3rd
in goals ranking) and 7 assists (5th in assist ranking),Verona's drop off may
be contributed to the departure of talented midfielder Jorginho to Napoli as
well as fatigue.
Verona though still have 6 games to make sure this is a
season to remember, they face Fiorentina this weekend at home before facing the
team they are level on points with away to Atalanta, they then face basement
boys Catania at home before facing 7th place Lazio in Rome, Verona then
conclude the season facing Udinese at home and conclude in Naples against
Napoli.
Torino (10th Place) 45 Points: Torino have been carried to a
10th place position in Serie A this year by the brilliant scoring exploits of
Ciro Immobile who is joint top of the Serie A goalscorers chart with 18 goals
and by the wing magic of Italy International Alessio Cerci, Immobile and Cerci
combined have contributed 30 of Torino's 47 league goals this season, therefore
it will be interesting if they can retain them for next season and a European
run would certainly help.
Torino start off their run-in facing Genoa at home, then
face 7th place Lazio in Rome, they then go on to entertain Udine and go to
Verona to face a struggling Chievo side and then conclude their season at home
to fellow Europa League hopefuls Parma and end the season in Florence to face
Fiorentina.
AC Milan (11th Place) 45 points: It has been a season of
despair for AC Milan this year with little to cheer for the Rossoneri this year
and with defeat to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, a slim chance for
Europa League qualification is the only way AC will see European football next
season.
AC start off this weekend facing bottom club Catania at the
San Siro before facing another relegation threatened team in Livorno, their run
gets a bit harder as they travel to Rome to face Roma, they then host the Milan
derby against Inter before going to Bergamo for another derby against Atalanta
before facing relegation threatened Sassuolo on the final day.
I devised a table below in order to show which teams have
the easiest and which teams have the hardest run-in on paper, this is done by
adding the oppositions league position and dividing it by games left, having a
smaller number indicates a stronger schedule, highlighted blocks are games
against Europa League rivals.
Looking at the strength of schedule rankings it's clear to see that no team is at a real advantage with their schedule, Parma have the weakest schedule with their opponents averaging a position of 13th, while Milan have an average of 12th place but do have an advantage of having 4 home games and 2 away games compared to everyone else who have 3 and 3, the other 5 teams all average either 9 or 10 showing that no teams have an amazingly difficult schedule but will be made to work for every point this season.
In the comments below, comment who you think will be playing in the Europa League next season.
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