Europa League qualification - The real drama in Italy

With Europa League Semi-Finalists Juventus leading AS Roma by 8 points with 6 games to go, it looks like the title race in Italy is just about run and with Napoli leading Fiorentina by 9 points and Fiorentina 5 points ahead of 5th place Inter it looks like the final Champions League place and the first Europa League place are pretty secured.

The real chase is the pack behind, with two more Europa League spots up for grabs ( one due to Fiorentina facing Napoli in the Coppa Italia Final) 5 points separate 7 teams with only 6 games left, the intensity of the Italian league will be intensified in the final weeks with several match-ups between the teams involved in the chase, below I will use analyse the run in that these teams have and use a strength of schedule formula developed in order to show the average position of their opposition.

Inter Milan (5th Place) 50 points: Inter start off their run-in with two trips firstly to Genoa to face Sampdoria and then to the Tardini to face 6th place Parma in what could be the most pivotal game in the race for Europa League places, Inter then welcome the Partenopei (Napoli) to the San Siro before a crucial Milan derby the week later, on top of this they welcome 7th place Lazio to the San Siro and conclude the season in Verona to take on relegation threatened Chievo.

Parma (6th Place) 50 points: Parma have had a great season, a team who have through character and determination had a remarkable 17 game unbeaten streak which set a team record for games without defeat. For Parma's run-in they start off with the Emilian Derby away against Bologna in the early Sunday kick off, they then go to the San Siro to face Inter and then go to Sardinia to face Cagliari. Parma then have 2 out of 3 at home to finish their season starting with Samp at the Tardini, they then go to Turin to face 10th place Torino before ending the season at home to relegation threatened Livorno.

Lazio (7th Place) 48 Points: Lazio will be looking for Europa League redemption next season after their surprise defeat at the hands of Ludogorets of Bulgaria in the Round of 32, but last seasons Coppa Italia winners will need to work hard if they are to qualify for the tournament next year, Lazio's run-in starts with on paper their hardest fixture at the San Paolo away to Napoli, they then face 10th place Torino at home before visiting lowly Livorno, they then face 9th and 5th place Verona and Inter, home and away respectively before ending the season at home to Bologna

Atalanta (8th Place) 46 Points: Atalanta have been fuelled by the tank German Denis and his goals have helped Atalanta in to this situation with a chance to secure European football for the first time in 24 years, Atalanta's push for Europe starts off with a tough trip to face Roma and then back to back home games against fellow Europa League contenders Verona and Genoa which are key games as they then face champions elect Juve in Turin before a local derby at home to AC Milan and finishing the season at bottom place Catania.

Verona (9th Place) 46 Points: Verona will consider themselves to be the surprise package of this season, widely tipped to go straight back down to Serie B, Andrea Mandorlini's outfit have surprised everyone with their level of play this season and with their great home support ( when compared to city rivals Chievo's home turnout) they have been in the race for European football for most of the season, the main players behind Verona's surprise run have been Brazilian midfielders Romulo and Juan Iturbe as well as former Italy international Luca Toni who has hit 16 league goals (3rd in goals ranking) and 7 assists (5th in assist ranking),Verona's drop off may be contributed to the departure of talented midfielder Jorginho to Napoli as well as fatigue.

Verona though still have 6 games to make sure this is a season to remember, they face Fiorentina this weekend at home before facing the team they are level on points with away to Atalanta, they then face basement boys Catania at home before facing 7th place Lazio in Rome, Verona then conclude the season facing Udinese at home and conclude in Naples against Napoli.

Torino (10th Place) 45 Points: Torino have been carried to a 10th place position in Serie A this year by the brilliant scoring exploits of Ciro Immobile who is joint top of the Serie A goalscorers chart with 18 goals and by the wing magic of Italy International Alessio Cerci, Immobile and Cerci combined have contributed 30 of Torino's 47 league goals this season, therefore it will be interesting if they can retain them for next season and a European run would certainly help.

Torino start off their run-in facing Genoa at home, then face 7th place Lazio in Rome, they then go on to entertain Udine and go to Verona to face a struggling Chievo side and then conclude their season at home to fellow Europa League hopefuls Parma and end the season in Florence to face Fiorentina.

AC Milan (11th Place) 45 points: It has been a season of despair for AC Milan this year with little to cheer for the Rossoneri this year and with defeat to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, a slim chance for Europa League qualification is the only way AC will see European football next season.

AC start off this weekend facing bottom club Catania at the San Siro before facing another relegation threatened team in Livorno, their run gets a bit harder as they travel to Rome to face Roma, they then host the Milan derby against Inter before going to Bergamo for another derby against Atalanta before facing relegation threatened Sassuolo on the final day.

I devised a table below in order to show which teams have the easiest and which teams have the hardest run-in on paper, this is done by adding the oppositions league position and dividing it by games left, having a smaller number indicates a stronger schedule, highlighted blocks are games against Europa League rivals.

Looking at the strength of schedule rankings it's clear to see that no team is at a real advantage with their schedule, Parma have the weakest schedule with their opponents averaging a position of 13th, while Milan have an average of 12th place but do have an advantage of having 4 home games and 2 away games compared to everyone else who have 3 and 3, the other 5 teams all average either 9 or 10 showing that no teams have an amazingly difficult schedule but will be made to work for every point this season.

 In the comments below, comment who you think will be playing in the Europa League next season.

Arsene Wenger - Time to go?

Arsene Wenger - Time to go?

In 1996 Arsene Wenger came in to Arsenal Football Club and changed the landscape of how football was played in the Premier League, he bought a style of attacking flair that was not only attractive but also effective, Wenger challenged the dominance of Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United during the 90’s and early 00’s and during the period between 1998 and 2005 won 11 major trophies including 3 Premier Leagues and 4 FA Cups and led the famous 2003-2004 “Invincibles” team.

So where did it go wrong?

The first reason is the emergence of Chelsea and Manchester City, in 2003 and 2008 respectively these two teams were purchased by Roman Abramovich and Sheik Mansour, two of the richest individuals in the world, these teams successes relied on teams bankrolled by high transfer fees and wages, these two clubs have also increased there stature during the time without worrying about financial problems.

Secondly during his time at Arsenal, Arsene has overseen the opening of a new training ground in Shenley and the opening of the Emirates Stadium in 2006 led to Wenger having to frugal for several years and being smart with how much to spend on transfers with the club paying off debts, but now that is not a problem anymore and It annoys Arsenal fans like me why this money is not being spent in if it is readily available.

A point that is less constructively talked about is Arsene Wenger’s tactical ability defensively and his ability to develop young defenders, When Arsene Wenger entered Highbury he inherited an already stalwart defence, which was assembled by George Graham containing Tony Adams, Lee Dixon, Steve Bould, Nigel Winterburn and Martin Keown, this defensive unit contributed to a run of eight consecutive clean sheets in the double winning season of 1997-1998. Even during the Invincibles season in which Keown was only sparingly used, Arsenal used their attacking prowess with Pires, Ljungberg, Vieira, Bergkamp and Henry to blow teams away in the Premier League but the defence even containing Sol Campbell and Ashley Cole could not lead arguably Arsenal’s greatest ever team to Champions League glory.

“Defence wins Championships” Is a quote that’s used very commonly in Basketball and it can be applied to football as well, there has been many a time where Arsenal have failed to close out a game be it a 4-4 at home to Spurs, a 2-2 draw against Birmingham which was a game that was a pivotal turning point in the 2007-2008 League season. I for one feel that Arsene Wenger has got to take a hard look at his tactics and philosophies and figure out what is the problem behind the recent series of thrashings an 8-2 vs United, 6-3 against City, 5-1 against Liverpool , 6-0 against Chelsea and even a 3-0 loss against Everton was seen as embarrassing, I really feel it is a valid point to question what Wenger has actually done defensively over the years at Arsenal, what world class defender has he brought through the youth system minus Ashley Cole, has Arsene Wenger  failed to evolve to a changing landscape?

So to conclude, if we do have this reported £100 million to spend on new players, do you think that Wenger is the guy who should be trusted to spend it? If not, who will be the guy to take the hot seat at the Emirates? Simeone, Klopp, Van Gaal and Conte are all options  to take over so there is a nice set of quality managers, people I feel are worried by change and there is some risks, take David Moyes for example but people fail to understand he has inherited an ageing squad and was not backed adequately in the transfer market in August, as seen with the acquisition of Juan Mata, Manchester United’s form has improved, Moyes real test will come next year when United look to buy to replace some of their older players. At the end of the day, change is inevitable, it is a part of life and some people need to get used to Arsene Wenger not being at Arsenal anymore, I feel that people feel  they have their rose tinted glasses on and have to understand at the end of the day it is Arsenal FC not Arsene FC.